Thursday, November 24, 2011

Week 12 NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions

The Lions must play better than they did on Sunday against Carolina to win today. Falling behind by two scores, giving up special teams touchdowns and turning the ball over three times in three possessions are ways to get sent home to an early Thanksgiving dinner.

Push it to the limit

The Packers are a team that will score a lot of points and gain a lot of yards no matter the situation. To think that you can shut them down is unrealistic. The key is limiting those points and yardage. The Lions can do this in two ways: Keeping Aaron Rogers off of the field by playing consistent, ball control offense and by stopping them on third down. The Lions are the best in the league at the latter and this will prove crucial to having any success today.

Stark contrasts

The Lions have been brutal against the run. Two of their three losses are directly related to poor run-defense. I’m not sure this will be a problem today, though. James Starks is a nice back who came through in a huge way for the Packers last year. He’s good between the tackles and will get yards after contact. Nice features that you want in a running back, but likely won’t hurt the Lions.

The war at the front and civilian contributions

The Lions really got after Rodgers last season, so much so that they knocked him out of one game. There’s no reason why they can’t do that again. However, this will take some help from the defensive backs. There were throws last week that Cameron Newton missed to some open receivers. Aaron Rodgers won’t miss those. If they can tighten their coverage, the Lions defensive line has a chance to really take over this game. The crowd can do much to aid in this. This should be the same atmosphere as Monday night if not louder. A disruption of Rodgers communicating with his receivers would be huge.

Suh me, baby

It all starts with Suh. He doesn’t do all the things that show up on a stat sheet but he does a lot of what doesn’t and his peers respect him for this. Today, he needs to add to that and do a couple things that do show up on a stat sheet. Look for a sack or maybe something bigger from him.

This is a game the Lions can win. If they don’t shore up the kick coverage, they’ll lose. If they can eliminate the big plays like this, then everything else will fall into place

Prediction: Lions 37 Packers 33

Players to watch: Randall Cobb, Tramond Williams

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