Week 12 NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions

The Lions must play better than they did on Sunday against Carolina to win today. Falling behind by two scores, giving up special teams touchdowns and turning the ball over three times in three possessions are ways to get sent home to an early Thanksgiving dinner.

Push it to the limit

The Packers are a team that will score a lot of points and gain a lot of yards no matter the situation. To think that you can shut them down is unrealistic. The key is limiting those points and yardage. The Lions can do this in two ways: Keeping Aaron Rogers off of the field by playing consistent, ball control offense and by stopping them on third down. The Lions are the best in the league at the latter and this will prove crucial to having any success today.

Stark contrasts

The Lions have been brutal against the run. Two of their three losses are directly related to poor run-defense. I’m not sure this will be a problem today, though. James Starks is a nice back who came through in a huge way for the Packers last year. He’s good between the tackles and will get yards after contact. Nice features that you want in a running back, but likely won’t hurt the Lions.

The war at the front and civilian contributions

The Lions really got after Rodgers last season, so much so that they knocked him out of one game. There’s no reason why they can’t do that again. However, this will take some help from the defensive backs. There were throws last week that Cameron Newton missed to some open receivers. Aaron Rodgers won’t miss those. If they can tighten their coverage, the Lions defensive line has a chance to really take over this game. The crowd can do much to aid in this. This should be the same atmosphere as Monday night if not louder. A disruption of Rodgers communicating with his receivers would be huge.

Suh me, baby

It all starts with Suh. He doesn’t do all the things that show up on a stat sheet but he does a lot of what doesn’t and his peers respect him for this. Today, he needs to add to that and do a couple things that do show up on a stat sheet. Look for a sack or maybe something bigger from him.

This is a game the Lions can win. If they don’t shore up the kick coverage, they’ll lose. If they can eliminate the big plays like this, then everything else will fall into place

Prediction: Lions 37 Packers 33

Players to watch: Randall Cobb, Tramond Williams

Week 11 NFL Picks: Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions

There is much the Lions can do to help themselves today. In a game against a floundering but dangerous football team, the Lions must be careful not to let the play makers of the Carolina Panthers hurt them. Led by rookie quarterback Cam Newton, the Panthers are a team that can score. If Detroit lets Newton roam outside of the pocket, he can find veteran wide receiver Steve Smith all day. This lack of containment will also lead to big running lanes for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, something we know the Lions have struggled with this season.

It’s imperative that the Lions get off to a good start. Taking an early lead will allow them to rely more on the running game and less on a beat up Matthew Stafford and his struggling receivers. The last thing Detroit needs is an early deficit where it must play to its weakness and try to stop the running game of Carolina.

The Panthers are a desperate team and they will do whatever it takes to gain an advantage. This includes gadget plays offensively. Don’t be surprised to see a few in this game. They are generally not a blitzing team either, but they may try to dial a few up this week, hoping to spark a turnover.

The special teams have been bad all season for Detroit and I don’t expect that to change today. Carolina will likely make a big play in this phase and Detroit will have to find a way to overcome it. This will be a sloppy game.

History made last week’s game the most important of the season. The result may be a telling sign of how the rest of the second half of the schedule plays out, or it may been an aberration.

Emotional tides, moral victories and catching teams off guard are all out the window now. This is November in the NFL where playoff teams separate themselves from the rest. If the Lions are to take that huge next step, they must take care of business at home today.


Prediction: Lions 23 Panthers 20

Players to watch- Stephen Tulloch, Charles Johnson

Week 10 Preview: Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears

Good news this week: the Lion’s aren’t playing the Cardinals.

In 1999 and 2007 the Lions had similar (different but same) starts to this season. Going 6-2 in their first 8 games both times, only to be followed by inexplicable and equally embarrassing finishes.


Remember: Vince Tobin


Following the abrupt retirement of Barry Sanders, the 1999 Lions started the season with a “we don’t need him” mentality. Well, turned out they needed him. After winning one of the most exciting games of the 1999 season against the eventual Super Bowl champ St. Louis Rams, the Lions traveled to Arizona to take on what was typically a bad Cardinals team. In a game marred by questionable coaching calls and broken plays, it would be a young Michael Pittman who stole the show, rushing for 145 yards including a 56 yard, game-breaking touchdown run to go along with a 46 yard catch. The Lions would lose 23-19 and finish the season 8-8. There was a botched 2 point conversion called by then-Lions coach Bobby Ross which would turn the tide of that game and eventually the season. While this was the last season that the Lions actually made the playoffs, it was on a 4 game losing streak and they would eventually lose in the NFC wild card to the Washington Redskins.


Pounding, Digging and Drive-Thru’s


Flash forward 8 years: the Lions are in their second season under head coach Rod Marinelli. It seems as though they’ve turned a corner and have started out the season 6-2. Enter: Arizona Cardinals. Matt Leinart has flamed out and a seemingly washed up Kurt Warner has stepped in. Playing mostly inconsistent ball to that point, it would be this game that Warner showed flashes of his old self, throwing 2 touchdowns to Larry Fitzgerald and 2 more to tight end Leonard Pope. The Lions would lose 31-21 and win only once more, finishing the season 7-9 and missing the playoffs.


Wrappin' Forte and the challenge of a rival


The Chicago Bears are an improved team the last few weeks and perhaps nobody is more responsible for that than the Lions. The bears are 3-0 since the Monday night game and have more than doubled their rushing output in those games - bad news for a Lions rush defense that has struggled even in victory.

There’s a misconception about the Monday night match up that Detroit dominated the game. The fact of the matter is that they were down at halftime and that’s despite most of the infamous false start penalties against Chicago coming in the first half. This game is at Soldier Field today and the man who broke that game wide open, Jahvid Best, will be in street clothes again. Chicago is likely to strike some big plays of their own and Detroit must match each one. Somebody on offense other than Calvin Johnson must step up today.

The Bears are a team without an identity. Sitting 23^rd in defense and 17^th in offense, they have still managed to win 5 games and are in a position to compete for the NFC North crown. However, this disparity makes them hard to game plan for. Matt Forte hurt the Lions last time and hasn’t slowed down since. He will get his yards and do what he does, but they have to prevent him from hitting the huge plays (20+ yards).


Don’t let Cutty do it


The Bears offensive line is much improved and without the advantage of a home crowd, Detroit’s play at the line of scrimmage will be more crucial than it has been all season. The defensive line is going to need help and that must come from the defensive backs. If they plan on knocking quarterback Jay Cutler around like they did last time, it will be because of the coverage. Despite his critics, Cutler can sling it and will hurt you if you let him.


Restoring the Roaring


Some say this year’s team is different. Some of those same people probably said that in 1999 and 2007 as well. We won’t know until this entire season plays out (hopefully not before then) what this team is made of. What we do know is that this game is equally as important as those previous 9^th game match ups and present many of the same challenges. It may be obvious to those who have watched this team for a while that they have definitive strengths and weaknesses while the previous 6-2 teams sort of fell into their records, failing to clearly define who they were. 2011 and beyond is built upon solid defense and score when you have to offense. Sure, they would like to run the ball more effectively, but that will come with more work and better health.

A road game against a capable, hungry and talented football team usually would result in a loss. With Chicago playing on a short week and Detroit coming off a bye, the difference could be rest and preparation.

Prediction: Lions 28 Bears 24

Players to watch- Titus Young, Earl Bennett