Saturday, December 24, 2011

Week 16 NFL Picks: San Diego Chargers and Detroit Lions

Win and in.

That's ultimately what over a decade of futility, desperation and frustration has come down to.

Every player knows the history of the franchise and the lack of playoff appearances. I only hope they understand the enormity of actually accomplishing the feat.

The Lions are talented enough to not only get into the playoffs, but actually go deep into them. When you have a player like Calvin Johnson and a defensive front that's as physical and overwhelming at times as theirs, you have a chance to beat anyone. Making the playoffs is nice. Making an actual playoff run is special.

San Diego is always dangerous and they come into this week exceptionally hot. However, examine their 3-game win streak a little closer and it's difficult to find anything too impressive about it. They did what they should have at home against lowly Jacksonville and Buffalo and they definitely took care of business against Baltimore. But Baltimore had already clinched a playoff spot and they almost certainly didn't take the Chargers as serious as they should have.

Nobody expects the Lions to rush for 150+ yards. However, they'll need to flirt with 100 to really play a clean game and come out with a victory. Their running backs are who they are. A crew of backups, most of whom were out of the league when the season started. The offensive line needs to have a greater commitment to run blocking and allow these serviceable-at-best backs to protect the pill and gain their 4 yards a carry. To exploit the San Diego rush defense may be too harsh a term, but they must be effective because San Diego has a top pass defense and Stafford will need help to loosen them up.

This is the Chargers' first and only game indoors all season. That makes the crowd noise all the more imperative. Their offense is communication intensive, meaning Rivers likes to talk to his linemen and maybe change a play all at the line of scrimmage. The Ford Field crowd can do much to hamper this. Of course, the game dictates what the crowd can do. People are only human and they can't get too amped up if the Lions are down big and early. A close game means a lot of banging ear drums.

San Diego has consistently been one of the most dynamic and best teams in the league since Drew Brees and Ladainian Tomlinson were in the backfield. They are strong in all phases and can compete with any team, any week. While the Lions have had their share of battles this season, they should relish the opportunity to get a playoff-type of contest before the playoffs actually start. Win, and you move on. They should look at it no other way.

Prediction: Lions 28 Chargers 26

Players to watch- Malcom Floyd, Chris Houston

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Week 15 NFL Picks: Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders

Even in victory, the Lions have a tendency to look undisciplined. Despite its deficiencies, this team has a lot of talent. It's just up to the coaches to harness that talent and channel it into production on the field. All things considered, the approach from here on out should not be just to get into the playoffs, but to go deep into them. To do that, these players have to look at themselves and ask if they want to do something special.

Matthew Stafford is quietly playing his best football of the season over the last 2 weeks. I'd like to see him continue to spread the ball around. Nate Burleson is a guy who will have his moments but he's no longer someone Stafford can go to when the game is on the line. Two tight end sets and more Titus Young are what this team needs. Would be nice to see Maurice Stovall also get into the mix late this season.

Stopping the run may be a monumental task today. While the Lions have had some success against larger backs, Michael Bush will almost certainly have a day against a poor run stopping defense. He's a bruiser and quite frankly someone  the Lions should be looking to sign this offseason.

Make no mistake about it, the Oakland Raiders can play ball. They have a play making defense that loves to force turnovers and their offense can shine at times.

It's not easy to win on the road. People look at the Raiders and see that they've lost their last two games in ugly fashion and assume the Lions should walk into Oakland and take an easy victory. As we've seen, the Lions don't like to do things the easy way. The Raiders have just enough talent to make this interesting. Maybe too interesting.

Prediction: Lions 31 Raiders 30

Players to watch: Chaz Schillens, Marcel Reece,

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Week 14 NFL Picks: Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions

There's what should happen and then there's what could happen. We know what the Lions should do to a decimated Minnesota Vikings team. Potentially without their starting quarterback and running back, the Lions should walk out of Ford Field with a victory. After all, they have a lot to prove after the last 2 weeks, don't they? Well, we may think so but that doesn't mean the team realizes it. It begs the question, can players who are even capable of committing the kind of inexcusable acts the Lions have over the last two weeks, learn from those same mistakes?  Believe the unbelievable when Jared Allen or another Viking tries to get under the skin of a Lion in hopes of getting a reaction. We'll find out what that reaction will be starting today and over the course of these next 3 weeks.

Just out of curiosity, is it worse to push a defenseless referee or to kick a guy's arm?

Despite an extreme lack of talent, the Vikings have played well at times this season. Like any team in the NFL, if you don't prepare for them or take them lightly, they can bite you. The Lions should be aware of this as it took a monumental comeback and overtime to beat them in week 3. There's nothing the Vikings would like more than to play spoiler and defeat their division rivals. Although, I'm not sure they would be spoiling anything.

There is so much that has to happen for this year's Lions to separate themselves from being just another mediocre football team. So far, they haven't done them. The kind of mental errors they've had just don't equate to success. The only thing this team has going for it is the hot start to the season. They're clinging to that as they've now lost 5 of 7 and have put themselves in a bad spot. If  the playoffs started today, the Lions would be watching from home (and not because they'd have a first round bye.)


The Lions must not look past this team nor will a sloppy win suffice. There's a lot they need to accomplish today including stopping the run and establishing their own. Whether Adrian Peterson is healthy or not, the Vikings can run the ball. When a team can do that, it opens up everything else in terms of moving the ball down the field and before you know it, you've got a ball game on your hands.

The rest of the schedule is a bit of a gauntlet. In my opinion, the Lions need to win 3 out of their last 4 as well as get some help from other teams in order to get into the playoffs. The Lions have some injuries of their own and those guys who step in to play better be ready because when the 4th quarter comes around, the entire season may be on the line.   

Let's assume this team has re-focused and will come ready to play.

Prediction: Lions 28, Vikings 23

Players to watch: Toby Gerhart, Percy Harvin

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Week 13 NFL Picks: Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints

There’s a lot that has gone wrong for the Detroit Lions the last few weeks. Injuries, unfavorable calls and a little incident you may have heard of involving Ndamokong Suh have hampered the plans that the Lions have made for the playoffs. Perhaps, the biggest problem is that the Lions had plans to begin with, not realizing the difficult road that still lay ahead. Somewhere along the schedule, the Lions lost their focus and now find themselves in a suddenly tight playoff race.

Now, the Lions travel to New Orleans, where they’ll take on a Saints team with a quarterback who I consider to be the best in the league in Drew Brees. The game has become an afterthought across the country, with most experts giving the Saints a decisive victory. Offensively, the Saints present match up problems for even the very best defenses in the league. But that is the key term: match ups. The Lions have some advantages that they should look to exploit early and often.

Both defenses are weak. Yes, both defenses. I know the reputation that the Lions have but the fact of the matter is that they haven’t lived up to that reputation. When you’re ‘ok’ against the pass and can’t stop the run, you are weak. Add to the mix a poor special teams squad and you've got the makings of an underachieving, playoff-missing football team. With that said, there's a chance for some big plays and real offensive fireworks.

Calvin Johnson hasn't been mentioned much in this blog this season nor has he needed to be. I know he's great, you know he's great. However, if the Lions are to make the playoffs, tonight must be a night to look back on as a reason why. This team is slumping and it will be up to their best player to pull them out of it. Like a great starting pitcher in baseball, CJ has to be Justin Verlander and play the stopper for this team.

Of course, much of what CJ does depends on his quarterback. Matthew Stafford has been practicing without the glove that he's worn the last few weeks. That could be good news, meaning his finger has healed, or bad news that he's desperate to break out of the funk that he's seemingly been in. The Saints defense may be mediocre, but like the Lions, they can be opportunistic. They aren't shy to bring pressure on the quarterback nor jump a route for an interception. Stafford has to match Brees nearly throw for throw.

You'll see Saints receivers getting behind Lions defenders the whole game tonight. The Lions need someone to do the same for them. There hasn't been anyone besides Johnson that has been able to really stretch a defense. Titus Young has played well at times this season, managing to score a few touchdowns. However, he has lacked those game changing plays that he was known for out of college. Look for Stafford to try and hit him deep tonight.

A healthy Kevin Smith could be the difference in the game. Balance between the run and the pass gives Detroit its best chance. Smith has had a nice resurgence this season but expect to see major contributions from Keiland Williams and Maurice Morris as well.

This has to be the Nick Fairley game. This is why they drafted him. He started the season looking weak and out of shape with much of that being attributed to his injury. He’s now had 2 healthy months under his belt to play himself back into shape. Ideally, the defense shouldn't miss a beat without Suh. That's what was visualized when Fairley was drafted and he his supposed to be Suh's near-equal, even as a rookie.

This needs to be a team effort. Justin Durant was signed this off season to be an athletic, sideline to sidelines playmaker. His game is meant to excel in games like this where a quarterback spreads the ball around to guys like Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham. The Lions could use a big defensive play from him today.

The dominoes have fallen nicely so far today for the Lions in terms of playoff positioning. Tonight, they can either take a giant leap towards the postseason or continue to watch the walls close in on them.


Prediction: Lions 30 Saints 35

Players to watch: New Orleans RB’s, Jonathan Vilma