Sunday, October 23, 2011

Week 7 NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions

We all knew it was going to happen, we just didn’t know when. With as well as the Detroit Lions had been playing, it was difficult to say when (or even if) they would lose their first game. Well, it happened last week against San Francisco and if the Lions organization has come as far as myself and others think it has, then they will be a better team for it.

Weaknesses that may have been somewhat prevelant before, were blown wide open. Stopping the run and special teams have been issues for this team all season and San Francisco exposed that. The return game has been irrelevant and the coverage, suspect. Stefan Logan missed some lanes that had he taken advantage of, could have changed the course of the game. Special teams can be the best friend to both your offense and defense. When they were needed the most last week, the Lions special teams dodged the call.

The two major questions I had about this team coming into this season were roster depth and coaching and how these components would play out as the season wears on. You can’t fault Martin Mayhew for the sudden pinch the Lions are in at running back. He spent a third round pick in last April’s draft on a more than capable running back in Mikel LeShoure, who subsequently was lost to injury for the season. I’m not sure why Aaron Brown hasn’t been brought back, but seemingly they are confident in Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams to shoulder the load until Jahvid Best returns. I can’t help but wonder what Peyton Hillis would have looked like in a Lions uniform.

As for coaching, the old school methods of Gunther Cunningham worried me when they hired him and he hasn’t done much to quell those fears since. This is an extremely talented defense all across the field but that fact alone doesn’t guarantee success. The Lions have put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, no doubt. But their sack numbers are not where they should be. The ‘Wide 9’ or as I like to call it ‘Why 9?‘ defense is an overall solid plan and can be counted on to not give up the big play. However, if you don’t have linebackers and defensive backs who are willing and capable of stepping up to stop the run, you will be in for a long day. The defensive line can’t be counted on every single play, for 4 quarters, every week. Cunningham will need to get creative this week.

Atlanta has finally come to their senses and are handing the ball to Michael Turner again -bad news for one of the worst rush defenses in the league. Matt Ryan has shown that he isn't quite elite, but he's in a group of the top 15 passers in the league. Atlanta is a good team but this is a home game for the Lions with a newly emerged 12th man that will be revved up. This is a game for the Detroit offensive line. They must create room to run against a top run stopping team and also protect Stafford. If Detroit doesn't get overcome in any one phase of the game, then the matchups will take care of the rest.

Prediction: Detroit 29 Atlanta 21

Players to watch: Brent Grimes, Ray Edwards, Keiland Williams

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