Sunday, September 18, 2011

Week 2 NFL Picks: Chiefs and Lions

Welcome to the jungle. A lion's domain where nobody gets out alive without the pardon of the king. The Detroit Lions have been feasting at their domain, Ford Field, since it opened 10 years ago. Ok, maybe they’ve been feasted upon more than they’ve feasted but today is the home opener and this is definitely a different Lions team.

The Kansas City Chiefs are in town, fresh off of a 41-7 stampeding at the hooves of the Buffalo Bills. With the Lions winning last week in such impressive fashion, one would think that picking this game is a no-brainer. Not so fast. Generally, when a team has a bad loss they get mad. Well, the Chiefs lost badly last week and they are good enough to do something about it.

First thing that comes to mind is the absence of Chiefs Safety Eric Berry. Out for the season, Berry presents a lot of problems for an offense when on the field. Veteran Jon McGraw (former Lion) will take his place. He won’t make the spectacular play but likely won’t give one up either. First instinct for a team is to attack a player like this who is filling in and that usually is the right move. However, backups in all sports have the tendency to come up big, functioning mostly on adrenaline, when initially called upon. The Lions should be careful about testing him because he just might be up for the challenge.

On the other side of the ball, All-Pros Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles are the type of guys that will do some damage no matter how much you game plan for them. It's just a matter of limiting that damage. Charles is dynamic in that he can catch the ball out of the backfield and is usually the quickest guy in the building, no matter which building he walks into. Bowe is big, fast and physical and can go off for big plays when his team needs it the most. His match up with the Lions corners, coupled with the necessity of those corners to step up in the run game will be important. The cornerbacks for both teams will have their hands full.

The Lions ran for 126 yards last week. Much of that was gained inside and between the tackles. These are the type of yards they’ll need again. This kind of a gameplan keeps defense’s honest and allows an offense to eventually break that big play outside or down the field. The ball security of Maurice Morris is a concern. Look for Jerome Harrison or new guy Keiland Williams to maybe make a case for that number two running back spot behind Jahvid Best.

Don’t be misled about who the Chiefs lost to last week and what that might mean. Sure, it was a bad loss but in my opinion, it was to a good team. Buffalo is poised to have an 8-8 season (4-12 in 2010) in what is one of the toughest divisions in football. With all of that said, the Lions will continue to reverse the historical trend and win another close game. They will run the ball effectively and Matt Cassell will be overwhelmed at times by the most dominant defensive line in football.

Prediction: Lions 28 Chiefs 24

Players to watch-

DET TE Brandon Pettigrew, KC CB Brandon Flowers

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